{"score":68,"status":{"label":"Stable","color":"#b8e03a","blurb":"Mostly steady, with pockets of trouble."},"factors":[{"id":"conflict","name":"Conflict & War","icon":"⚔️","weight":20,"ttl":900,"explanation":"Share of all news-reported events worldwide that are violent (CAMEO codes 18 Assault, 19 Fight, 20 Mass violence), weighted by how often each event is mentioned. Built from GDELT's machine-coded global news event stream.","sources":[{"name":"GDELT Project 2.0 Event Database","url":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/data.html#rawdatafiles"}],"method":"Mention-weighted violent-event share V over the last 24 hours (24 hourly 15-minute GDELT export files). Score = 100 at V ≤ 3%, 0 at V ≥ 15%, linear in between. Calibration: sampled full days ranged from 5.4% (15 Apr 2020, pandemic lull) and 6.8% (Jun 2021) to 8.1% (24 Feb 2022, Russia invades Ukraine), 11.5% (8 Oct 2023) and 14.1% (14 Apr 2024, Iran's missile/drone strike on Israel).","status":"ok","score":63.9,"headline":"7.3% of global news events are violent","dataPoints":[{"label":"Violent-event share (24h, mention-weighted)","value":"7.33%"},{"label":"All material-conflict events (QuadClass 4)","value":"14.0%"},{"label":"Avg Goldstein cooperation score (−10…+10)","value":"0.40"},{"label":"Events analysed","value":"28,473 from 24 files"},{"label":"Most-reported violence locations","value":"United States (32%), Israel (6%), Australia (5%), Russia (5%), Nigeria (4%)"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-10-06T08:15:00.000Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:32.155Z"},{"id":"nuclear","name":"Nuclear & WMD Threat","icon":"☢️","weight":14,"ttl":900,"explanation":"Share of the world's online news articles that GDELT tags with its weapons-of-mass-destruction theme (nuclear, chemical, biological weapons). Spikes in this coverage track nuclear threats, doctrine changes, weapons tests and attacks on nuclear programmes.","sources":[{"name":"GDELT 2.0 Global Knowledge Graph (GKG)","url":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/data.html#rawdatafiles"}],"method":"W = share of GKG articles tagged theme WMD across 8 sampled 15-minute files over the last 24 hours (one every 3 hours). Score = 100 at W ≤ 0.3%, 0 at W ≥ 2.5%, linear. Calibration (same method, days we checked): 0.16% (1 Jan 2026), 0.26% (Oct 2019), 0.33% (Jun 2021), 0.48% (May 2019); 0.86% (6 Oct 2022, Biden's 'Armageddon' remark), 1.25% (19 Nov 2024, Russia revises nuclear doctrine), 1.43% (21 Sep 2022, Putin's 'not a bluff' speech), 1.59% (21 Feb 2023, Russia suspends New START), 2.49% (27 Feb 2022, Russian nuclear forces put on alert).","status":"ok","score":97,"headline":"0.37% of world news coverage is about WMD","dataPoints":[{"label":"Articles tagged WMD (24h sample)","value":"0.37% (32 of 8,719)"},{"label":"Tagged 'nuclear & chemical war'","value":"0.05%"},{"label":"Files sampled","value":"8 of 8 (every 3 h)"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-10-06T08:15:00.000Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:34.912Z"},{"id":"pandemic","name":"Pandemics & Disease","icon":"🦠","weight":13,"explanation":"How often the World Health Organization is issuing official Disease Outbreak News alerts, with an extra penalty for high-consequence pathogens (e.g. Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, novel/avian flu, MERS).","sources":[{"name":"WHO Disease Outbreak News","url":"https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news"},{"name":"Latest: 2026-DON618","url":"https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618"}],"method":"Score = 100 − 4 × (WHO outbreak notices published in the last 90 days) − 15 × (distinct high-consequence pathogens among them), clamped to 0–100. High-consequence list: Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, MERS, novel/avian influenza (H5/H7/H9), novel coronavirus, smallpox, plague, Lassa, CCHF, mpox clade I.","status":"ok","score":61,"headline":"6 WHO outbreak alerts in 90 days · Ebola","dataPoints":[{"label":"WHO Disease Outbreak News, last 90 days","value":"6"},{"label":"High-consequence pathogens flagged","value":"Ebola"},{"label":"Latest notice","value":"Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo (2026-09-25)"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-09-25T15:16:26Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:31.712Z"},{"id":"climate","name":"Climate","icon":"🌡️","weight":10,"explanation":"Two headline climate measurements: how hot the planet has been over the last 12 months (NASA GISTEMP global surface temperature anomaly) and how fast CO₂ is still accumulating in the atmosphere (NOAA Mauna Loa, year-on-year growth).","sources":[{"name":"NASA GISTEMP v4 (global, monthly)","url":"https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/"},{"name":"NOAA GML Mauna Loa CO₂ (weekly)","url":"https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/"}],"method":"Average of two sub-scores. Temperature: mean GISTEMP anomaly of the latest 12 months vs 1951–1980; 100 at ≤ 0.3 °C (early-1980s level), 0 at ≥ 1.8 °C (≈ 2 °C above pre-industrial). CO₂ growth: mean of the latest 4 weekly Mauna Loa readings minus the same weeks a year earlier (NOAA's own '1 year ago' column); 100 at ≤ 0 ppm/yr (concentrations stabilised), 0 at ≥ 3.5 ppm/yr (around the record annual growth). If one sub-source fails, the other is used alone.","status":"ok","score":44.5,"headline":"+1.21 °C warmer · CO₂ 425.82 ppm","dataPoints":[{"label":"Global temp anomaly, 12-mo avg (to 2026-08)","value":"+1.21 °C vs 1951–1980"},{"label":"Latest month (Aug 2026)","value":"+1.40 °C"},{"label":"CO₂ at Mauna Loa (week of 2026-09-20)","value":"425.82 ppm"},{"label":"CO₂ growth vs a year earlier (4-week mean)","value":"+1.77 ppm/yr"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-09-20","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:33.073Z"},{"id":"ai-risk","name":"AI Risk","icon":"🤖","weight":9,"explanation":"Documented real-world harms caused by AI systems, as catalogued by the Responsible AI Collaborative's AI Incident Database (AIID). We count how many distinct AI incidents received new news reports in the last 14 days.","sources":[{"name":"AI Incident Database","url":"https://incidentdatabase.ai/"},{"name":"Incident #1724","url":"https://incidentdatabase.ai/cite/1724"}],"method":"N = distinct AIID incident IDs cited by reports published in the last 14 days (from AIID's live RSS feed of its 100 most recent reports). Score = 100 at N ≤ 5, 0 at N ≥ 50, linear between. If the feed doesn't reach back a full 14 days the count is shown as a minimum (≥ N). Caveat: counts reflect media coverage and AIID editorial capacity as well as underlying harm; it is an editorial threshold, not a probability of AI catastrophe.","status":"ok","score":60,"headline":"23 AI incidents with new reports in 14 days","dataPoints":[{"label":"Distinct AI incidents reported, last 14 days","value":"23"},{"label":"Reports in window","value":"48"},{"label":"Newest incident ID in feed","value":"#1724"},{"label":"Latest reported incident","value":"#1724: Oklahoma judge used AI in ruling that contained false citations, prosecutor says (2026-10-04)"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:31.245Z"},{"id":"energy","name":"Energy","icon":"⚡","weight":9,"explanation":"The global oil benchmark price is the single best real-time barometer of energy stress: supply shocks, wars in producing regions and shipping disruptions all show up here first.","sources":[{"name":"FRED / U.S. EIA — Brent crude spot (DCOILBRENTEU)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU"}],"method":"Score = 100 at Brent ≤ $55/bbl, 0 at ≥ $135/bbl, linear between (nominal USD). Reference points (daily spot, from the same series): 2019 average $64.30; low of $9.12 in Apr 2020; $133.18 peak on 8 Mar 2022; record $143.95 in Jul 2008.","status":"unavailable","dataPoints":[],"fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:19:52.154Z","error":"The operation was aborted due to timeout"},{"id":"food","name":"Food Prices","icon":"🌾","weight":7,"explanation":"The UN FAO Food Price Index tracks world prices of cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar (2014–2016 = 100). Spikes have historically preceded hunger crises and unrest.","sources":[{"name":"FAO Food Price Index","url":"https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/"}],"method":"Score = 100 at index ≤ 95, 0 at ≥ 160, linear between. Reference points (same series): 2019 average 94.9; 2011 peak 137.7 (Arab Spring era); all-time high 160.2 in March 2022.","status":"unavailable","dataPoints":[],"fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:31.704Z","error":"HTTP 404 from www.fao.org"},{"id":"famine","name":"Famine & Hunger","icon":"🍚","weight":7,"explanation":"FEWS NET (the U.S.-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network) classifies acute food insecurity on the 5-phase IPC scale. We use the highest current phase in each monitored country: Phase 4 = Emergency, Phase 5 = Famine.","sources":[{"name":"FEWS NET Data Warehouse (IPC phase, current situation)","url":"https://fews.net/"}],"method":"Using FEWS NET's latest monthly 'highest food-insecurity classification' per country: Score = 100 − 30 × (countries in Phase 5 Famine) − 6 × (countries in Phase 4 Emergency) − 1 × (countries in Phase 3 Crisis), clamped 0–100. Coverage is the ~35–40 countries FEWS NET monitors, which include nearly all current hunger hotspots.","status":"ok","score":39,"headline":"7 countries in IPC Emergency (Phase 4)","dataPoints":[{"label":"Phase 5 — Famine","value":"None currently classified"},{"label":"Phase 4 — Emergency (7)","value":"Haiti, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen"},{"label":"Phase 3 — Crisis","value":"19 countries"},{"label":"Countries monitored","value":"36"},{"label":"Classification period","value":"2026-07"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-07-01","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:35.353Z"},{"id":"asteroid","name":"Asteroids & Cosmic Threats","icon":"☄️","weight":5,"explanation":"NASA/JPL's Sentry system continuously monitors every known asteroid with a non-zero chance of hitting Earth in the next 100+ years. The Torino Scale (0–10) rates the threat; anything above 0 is rare and newsworthy.","sources":[{"name":"NASA/JPL CNEOS Sentry","url":"https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/"},{"name":"NASA/JPL Close Approach Data","url":"https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/"}],"method":"Base score from the highest Torino rating of any object on the Sentry risk list: 0→100, 1→92, 2→75, 3→65, 4→55, 5→35, 6→25, 7→15, 8→5, 9–10→0. −5 if any object's cumulative Palermo scale > −2, −20 if > 0 (above background risk). −10 if an asteroid ≥ ~140 m (H < 22) passes within 1 lunar distance in the next 30 days.","status":"ok","score":95,"headline":"No known asteroid above Torino 0","dataPoints":[{"label":"Highest Torino rating on Sentry list","value":"0"},{"label":"Objects on Sentry impact-risk list","value":"2,212"},{"label":"Highest cumulative Palermo scale","value":"-0.92 (29075 (1950 DA), ~1300 m, 2880-2880)"},{"label":"Flybys inside the Moon's distance, next 30 days","value":"1 (0 ≥ ~140 m)"},{"label":"Closest upcoming flyby","value":"2025 UK9 on 2026-Oct-31 02:35 UTC at 0.82 lunar distances"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-10-06T08:18:32.331Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:32.331Z"},{"id":"ai-progress","name":"Progress: AI Research","icon":"🧠","weight":3,"explanation":"A positive signal: the pace of new AI research. We count new arXiv papers in Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Computation & Language (cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL, cross-lists counted once) over a 7-day window and compare with the same week one year earlier.","sources":[{"name":"arXiv API","url":"https://info.arxiv.org/help/api/index.html"}],"method":"Window = the 7 days ending 3 days ago (to let arXiv's search index catch up). R = papers in window ÷ papers in the same window one year earlier, both from the arXiv API (submittedDate search). Score = 100 at R ≥ 1.5 (50% year-on-year growth), 0 at R ≤ 0.8 (a 20% contraction), linear between. Note: API search totals are lower than arXiv's listing pages, but the method is identical for both years, so the ratio is comparable.","status":"ok","score":100,"headline":"4,272 new AI papers in a week (+62% YoY)","dataPoints":[{"label":"cs.AI/LG/CL papers, 2026-09-27 → 2026-10-03","value":"4,272"},{"label":"Same week a year earlier (2025-09-27 → 2025-10-03)","value":"2,643"},{"label":"Year-on-year ratio","value":"1.62×"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-10-03","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T07:22:36.556Z"},{"id":"progress","name":"Progress: Reaching Orbit","icon":"🚀","weight":3,"explanation":"A positive signal: how often humanity is successfully reaching space. Launch cadence reflects industrial capacity, scientific ambition and the build-out of global communications and Earth observation.","sources":[{"name":"The Space Devs — Launch Library 2","url":"https://thespacedevs.com/llapi"}],"method":"Successful orbital launches worldwide in the last 30 days (Launch Library 2, status = 'Launch Successful'). Score = 100 at ≥ 30 launches, 0 at 0, linear. For reference: roughly 8 per month in 2019 and 21 per month in 2024.","status":"ok","score":83.3,"headline":"25 successful orbital launches in 30 days","dataPoints":[{"label":"Successful launches, last 30 days","value":"25"},{"label":"Most recent","value":"Falcon Heavy | NROL-97 (2026-10-02)"}],"dataAsOf":"2026-10-02T03:54:00Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-06T08:18:32.338Z"}],"usedWeight":84,"generatedAt":"2026-10-06T08:19:52.154Z","clock":{"secondsToMidnight":673,"label":"11 minutes 13 seconds to midnight"}}