The Live Doomsday Clock
How close is midnight right now? A transparent, data-driven clock computed from eleven live public data sources.
Computed Oct 5, 17:20 UTC from 9 of 11 live sources · unavailable: Energy, Food Prices
What's pushing the hand toward midnight
Each factor's share of the points the world is currently losing (weight × distance from a perfect 100). Bigger bar = bigger push toward midnight.
Full per-factor data points, thresholds and calibration notes are on the Meter tab.
How the time is set
The clock is driven by the same scoring engine as Humanity’s Survival Score: eleven factors, each scored 0–100 from live public data, combined as a weighted average (weights re-normalised if a source is unavailable). The score S is then mapped to a time before midnight:
seconds to midnight = 20 min × (S / 100)1.5
S = 100 (no stress anywhere) sets the clock at 20 minutes to midnight — roughly the calmest the Bulletin's clock has ever been (17 minutes, in 1991). S = 0 is midnight. The curve is convex, so crisis states compress near midnight: each point lost matters more as things get worse. On this scale the Bulletin's current 85 seconds corresponds to a score of about 17.1.
What this is — and isn't
- This is a data-driven, transparent indicator, not a prediction of the actual probability of human extinction.
- It does not replace the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock, which is an annual expert judgement. What this clock adds is that it's live, fully transparent, and updated every 15 minutes from public data anyone can check.
- GDELT-based factors (conflict, nuclear) refresh every 15 minutes; other sources refresh hourly or as often as they publish (see each factor's “data as of”).
- News-derived signals measure what is being reported, which tracks but is not identical to what is happening on the ground.