Every number on this page is fetched live from free, public, key-less data sources on the server and re-computed every 15 minutes (fast sources) to hourly (slower or rate-limited sources). Nothing is estimated or filled in by hand. Each factor is converted to a 0–100 sub-score (0 = extinction-level stress, 100 = no stress at all) using the fixed, published thresholds below. The overall score is the weighted average of the sub-scores. If a source fails to respond, that factor is shown as “data unavailable” and the remaining weights are re-normalised — no placeholder values are ever substituted.
⚔️ Conflict & War20%
Mention-weighted violent-event share V over the last 24 hours (24 hourly 15-minute GDELT export files). Score = 100 at V ≤ 3%, 0 at V ≥ 15%, linear in between. Calibration: sampled full days ranged from 5.4% (15 Apr 2020, pandemic lull) and 6.8% (Jun 2021) to 8.1% (24 Feb 2022, Russia invades Ukraine), 11.5% (8 Oct 2023) and 14.1% (14 Apr 2024, Iran's missile/drone strike on Israel).
☢️ Nuclear & WMD Threat14%
W = share of GKG articles tagged theme WMD across 8 sampled 15-minute files over the last 24 hours (one every 3 hours). Score = 100 at W ≤ 0.3%, 0 at W ≥ 2.5%, linear. Calibration (same method, days we checked): 0.16% (1 Jan 2026), 0.26% (Oct 2019), 0.33% (Jun 2021), 0.48% (May 2019); 0.86% (6 Oct 2022, Biden's 'Armageddon' remark), 1.25% (19 Nov 2024, Russia revises nuclear doctrine), 1.43% (21 Sep 2022, Putin's 'not a bluff' speech), 1.59% (21 Feb 2023, Russia suspends New START), 2.49% (27 Feb 2022, Russian nuclear forces put on alert).
🦠 Pandemics & Disease13%
Score = 100 − 4 × (WHO outbreak notices published in the last 90 days) − 15 × (distinct high-consequence pathogens among them), clamped to 0–100. High-consequence list: Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, MERS, novel/avian influenza (H5/H7/H9), novel coronavirus, smallpox, plague, Lassa, CCHF, mpox clade I.
🌡️ Climate10%
Average of two sub-scores. Temperature: mean GISTEMP anomaly of the latest 12 months vs 1951–1980; 100 at ≤ 0.3 °C (early-1980s level), 0 at ≥ 1.8 °C (≈ 2 °C above pre-industrial). CO₂ growth: mean of the latest 4 weekly Mauna Loa readings minus the same weeks a year earlier (NOAA's own '1 year ago' column); 100 at ≤ 0 ppm/yr (concentrations stabilised), 0 at ≥ 3.5 ppm/yr (around the record annual growth). If one sub-source fails, the other is used alone.
🤖 AI Risk9%
N = distinct AIID incident IDs cited by reports published in the last 14 days (from AIID's live RSS feed of its 100 most recent reports). Score = 100 at N ≤ 5, 0 at N ≥ 50, linear between. If the feed doesn't reach back a full 14 days the count is shown as a minimum (≥ N). Caveat: counts reflect media coverage and AIID editorial capacity as well as underlying harm; it is an editorial threshold, not a probability of AI catastrophe.
⚡ Energy9%
Score = 100 at Brent ≤ $55/bbl, 0 at ≥ $135/bbl, linear between (nominal USD). Reference points (daily spot, from the same series): 2019 average $64.30; low of $9.12 in Apr 2020; $133.18 peak on 8 Mar 2022; record $143.95 in Jul 2008.
🌾 Food Prices7%
Score = 100 at index ≤ 95, 0 at ≥ 160, linear between. Reference points (same series): 2019 average 94.9; 2011 peak 137.7 (Arab Spring era); all-time high 160.2 in March 2022.
🍚 Famine & Hunger7%
Using FEWS NET's latest monthly 'highest food-insecurity classification' per country: Score = 100 − 30 × (countries in Phase 5 Famine) − 6 × (countries in Phase 4 Emergency) − 1 × (countries in Phase 3 Crisis), clamped 0–100. Coverage is the ~35–40 countries FEWS NET monitors, which include nearly all current hunger hotspots.
☄️ Asteroids & Cosmic Threats5%
Base score from the highest Torino rating of any object on the Sentry risk list: 0→100, 1→92, 2→75, 3→65, 4→55, 5→35, 6→25, 7→15, 8→5, 9–10→0. −5 if any object's cumulative Palermo scale > −2, −20 if > 0 (above background risk). −10 if an asteroid ≥ ~140 m (H < 22) passes within 1 lunar distance in the next 30 days.
🧠 Progress: AI Research3%
Window = the 7 days ending 3 days ago (to let arXiv's search index catch up). R = papers in window ÷ papers in the same window one year earlier, both from the arXiv API (submittedDate search). Score = 100 at R ≥ 1.5 (50% year-on-year growth), 0 at R ≤ 0.8 (a 20% contraction), linear between. Note: API search totals are lower than arXiv's listing pages, but the method is identical for both years, so the ratio is comparable.
🚀 Progress: Reaching Orbit3%
Successful orbital launches worldwide in the last 30 days (Launch Library 2, status = 'Launch Successful'). Score = 100 at ≥ 30 launches, 0 at 0, linear. For reference: roughly 8 per month in 2019 and 21 per month in 2024.
0–20: Extinction Watch · 20–40: Severe Danger · 40–60: Precarious · 60–80: Stable · 80–100: Prospering